This Market Update is written by our Capital Market specialists each week to bring you insight into what's happening in the market and how it may affect mortgage rates and real estate trends.
Market Commentary:
Interest rates increased slightly for the week of April 11th to April 17th. Average mortgage rates are edging lower, yet remain elevated as of Thursday, April 17, 2025, after a week of volatile swings that took the 30-year benchmark to three-month highs. New data from the National Association of Home Builders reports a slow start to the spring homebuying season, a result of growing economic uncertainty — including tariffs that have pushed borrowing costs higher and threaten to make homes more expensive.
While experts predict rates will move lower throughout 2025, it won't be a dramatic decline: Fannie Mae expects average 30-year fixed mortgage rates to remain around 6.5%. And with investors and lenders bracing for more news on Trump's trade agenda, more panic-based turbulence is likely in the coming months.
Fed Watch:
Target rate (in bps) possibilities, according to the CME Group (as of 04/17/2025 – 12:00 PM EST):
Market Review: Optimal Blue’s Production Metrics:
Home Price Expectations Survey – Fannie Mae:
Data Distraction
Usually, last Wednesday’s stellar CPI numbers would have resulted in melting Treasury yields, but due to tariffs the report was utterly ignored. That said, M-o-M CPI fell 0.1%, the first decline since 6/24, and core CPI rose 0.1%, the smallest rise since 1/21. Y-o-Y, CPI and core rose 2.4% and 2.8% respectively. Moreover, the declines were breathtakingly broad-based. Absent tariff concerns, I bet the Fed would cut rates in May.
-Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D., Economist
News You Can Use:
- Home Buyers May Face Surprise Credit Hit from Student Loans
- Powell indicates tariffs could pose a challenge for the Fed between controlling inflation and boosting growth
- Builder Confidence Levels Indicate Slow Start for Spring Housing Season
- Homebuyers rush to riskier loans, as tariff turmoil pushes interest rates higher
- Expert Panel Expects Home Price Growth to Moderate
- Buchanan’s two bills would help Americans meet challenges of current housing market
- A Huge Majority of Home Sellers Believe They’ll Get More Than Their Asking Price—Here’s Why
- What a Recession Could Mean for the Housing Market
- Mortgage Insurance Premium Tax Write-Off Back On The Table
Interest rate and annual percentage rate (APR) are based on current market conditions as of 04/17/2025, are for informational purposes only, are subject to change without notice and may be subject to pricing add-ons related to
property type, loan amount, loan-to-value, credit score and other variables. Estimated closing costs used in the APR calculation are assumed to be paid by the borrower at closing. If the closing costs are financed, the loan, APR and payment amounts will be higher. Contact us for details. Additional loan programs may be available. Accuracy is not guaranteed, and all products may not be available in all borrower's geographical areas and are based on their individual situation. This is not a credit decision or a commitment to lend. actual interest rate, APR, and payment may vary based on the specific terms of the loan selected, verification of information, your credit history, the location and type of property, and other factors as determined by Prosperity Home Mortgage, LLC. Not available in all states. Rate is as of 04/17/2025 and is subject to change at any time without notice. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views contained in this document are those of Freddie Mac’s economists and other researchers, do not necessarily represent the views of Freddie Mac or its management, and should not be construed as indicating Freddie Mac’s business prospects or expected results. Although the authors attempt to provide reliable, useful information, they do not guarantee that the information or other content in this document is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. All content is subject to change without notice. All content is provided on an “as is” basis, with no warranties of any kind whatsoever. Information from this document may be used with proper attribution.
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